๐งฎ Kelly Criterion Calculator
The Kelly criterion uses your win rate and average win/loss to suggest the share of capital that maximises long-run growth in theory. Because inputs are uncertain, many traders use half or a quarter of Kelly.
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How to use the kelly criterion calculator
- Enter your historical win rate.
- Enter your average win and average loss.
- Read the full Kelly %, half Kelly and quarter Kelly.
Strategies that use this tool
Trend Following (Moving-Average Crossover)
Trend following with moving-average crossovers aims to ride sustained price trends and step aside when they fade. A fast average crossing above a slow average signals a possible uptrend, and crossing below signals weakness.
๐Swing Trading
Swing trading aims to capture short to medium price swings that last a few days to a few weeks. It sits between fast day trading and slow long-term investing, using charts to time entries and exits.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Kelly criterion?
A formula that sizes positions based on edge and payoff to maximise long-run growth of capital in theory.
Why use fractional Kelly?
Win rates and payoffs are estimates. Full Kelly is very aggressive if your estimates are wrong.
What does a negative Kelly mean?
It means your numbers show no edge โ the formula says not to take the bet.